U.S.: DJIA
- is up 10.90% 1 year (YR) and up 9.74% Year To Date (YTD)
China: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
- is up 7.72% 1YR and up 4.09% YTD
Malaysia: KLSE
- is up 0.39% 1YR and down 3.93% YTD
[Data: bloomberg.com 29/11/2016]
U.S. stocks have done well year to date and swell post election. Coincidentally, Mr Trump’s presidency feels like a reoccurrence of Ronald Reagan’s presidency back in the 1980s. If this is the case, U.S. companies & stocks should very much benefit from a likely reduction in red tapes for businesses, possible tax cuts, among others. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the president alone is insufficient to drive all policies without congress.
During Reagan’s administration between 1981-1989, The Dow Jones tanked to below 2000 and back up to well above 4000, more than double. Are we expecting such returns? Certainly we don’t know with given global debt levels and slowdown, however moving forward the dow jones index is likely to go on an upwards long term trend, or in other words, stocks should continue doing well.
These information are great for those in or thinking of Index Funds i.e. by Vanguard. This is as anyone could have made an above 6% return if invested in an overall U.S. stocks YTD, looking at the returns on the DJIA; up 9.74%YTD.
As for stimulus package(s) and inflation targets, should investors be expecting a future increase in inflation in the U.S., here’s an interesting short quote by nobel prized economics Yale professor Robert Shiller,
“ Inflation has always baffled economists. Hence, no one can accurately predict inflation, why and when it happens. ”
Malaysian Insurance Industry
With the government starting off with charging schemes in public hospitals, more costs should be seen being pushed to individuals meaning patients will have to purchase more policies hence more underwriting and potential growth for insurance companies; as such that has happened in the states post Obama care or even before when the private sector started financing medical cases.
Stocks in View
Parkson Holdings Bhd (5657.KL)
Update:
Tax free scheme launched for foreign travellers including residents in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan to enjoy 9% tax savings. [ Article: http://ttgasia.com/article.php?article_id=28424 ]
Capex remain high due to new store openings, new business introductions, with slowing same store sales in China. Strategies to introduce on-sight experiences; restaurants are still ongoing however management's outlook remains cautious. Ongoing Rmb1.6bil fixed Asset Liquidation (Beijing Huadesheng Property Management Co Ltd. equity interests) should be beneficial to liquidity for investment;
Tax free scheme launched for foreign travellers including residents in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan to enjoy 9% tax savings. [ Article: http://ttgasia.com/article.php?article_id=28424 ]
Capex remain high due to new store openings, new business introductions, with slowing same store sales in China. Strategies to introduce on-sight experiences; restaurants are still ongoing however management's outlook remains cautious. Ongoing Rmb1.6bil fixed Asset Liquidation (Beijing Huadesheng Property Management Co Ltd. equity interests) should be beneficial to liquidity for investment;
- TOTAL liquidation is expected to see a cash inflow of Rmb2.3bil/RM1.4bil with a net gain of RM300mil to Parkson Bhd Group acccording to Parkson Bhd's Quarter Q1 2017 report announced on 23/11/2016 for period ending 30/9/2016.
This would translate into a gain of approximately RM0.14 per Parkson Bhd share by way of 51% plus ownership of Parkson Retail Group Ltd. (PRGL).
- The disposal is expected to generate a net gain of Rmb0.9bil/RM580mil to PRGL Group according to PRGL Q3 2016 unaudited report announced and dated 17/11/2016.
This would translate into a gain of approximately RM0.14 per Parkson Bhd share by way of 51% plus ownership of Parkson Retail Group Ltd. (PRGL).
- The disposal is expected to generate a net gain of Rmb0.9bil/RM580mil to PRGL Group according to PRGL Q3 2016 unaudited report announced and dated 17/11/2016.
Perak Corporation Bhd (8141.KL)
Until next time, happy investing.
[DISCLOSURE: The writer currently owns minority stake in Parkson Holdings Bhd and Perak Corporation Bhd among the mentioned stocks as of 30/11/2016 under his personal account. JR Capital LLP has no minority interest in mentioned stock as of mentioned date.]
[DISCLAIMER: Everything stated in this blog is purely the opinion of the writer and any decision taken should be based on sound judgement with risks fully born by the decision maker. The writer shall bear no responsibility for any losses due to adherence of advices blogged by the writer or any commenters. Informational discrepancies are possible and will be corrected if any.]
